Will the PS3 Actually Last For 10 Years?

Sony designed the PS3 with a proprietary processing technology known as the "Cell Processor". This technology amounts to 7 cores running at 3.2 GHz. (It is true that there are 8 cores, but one is always off or on "standby".) This is my understanding of it, and while the details of the thing can be debated, the focus here is on Sony's proposed 10-year life cycle for it's PS3. This is something that, since the beginning of the PS3's life, I personally have doubted and seen as moot.

First, let's look at what Sony meant when they were talking about the PS3's proposed 10 year life cycle. Did they mean that the PS3 should be in it's 10th year before the PS4 is released? Or did they merely mean that they would support the PS3 for 10 years? First let us examine the latter: There are several consoles that have already been supported for 10 years. Sony's own PS1 and PS2 had support for at least 10 years each. Before that, Nintendo's NES had support for 10 years. The Sega Genesis had 14 years of support. So merely supporting a console for 10 years can't be Sony's plan, it's not new or revolutionary. It is clear that their goal was to have the PS3 be their offering for 10 years before having to introduce something new. That being said I have pointed out in my previous article "Wii U, and the Near Future of Consoles" that this generation of consoles probably doesn't have until 2016. (The Wii and PS3 came out in 2006.)

When the Wii launched it didn't just change gaming forever, as the cliche goes... it opened a Pandora's Box. Now instead of expecting just better graphics from consoles and their games we also expect a surprise. We now want to be dazzled by some funky new control and interaction scheme to accompany the new machine. PS3's addition of the Move apparatus (clearly a Wii rip-off) in the long run will not delay introduction of a PS4 until 2016. Neither will some manner of Vita/PS3 control interaction as an expensive alternative to just buying a Wii-U. I don't know how many people even use the same computer for 10 straight years, and I would bet most gamers expect to upgrade their systems every 5-7 years or so. Is this another case of Sony's arrogance coming back to bite them yet again?

Bite as it may, it doesn't matter. Despite it's lifetime sales numbers, the PS3 has momentum right now, in the back-half of this generation of consoles. For the price (which is finally reasonable) you get a beefcake of a machine, no argument there. But the other two companies are surely going to launch new consoles soon putting the PS3 into the "yesterday's news" category. Yes, the PS2 continued to be a strong player well into this generation, but that is because of it's huge installed base. The PS3 will never see numbers like that, and those who continue to develop games for it will slowly pull away and divert their teams to newer projects, as it always has been.

I don't think the PS3 is going to have a "10 year life-span" as forecast by Sony. It may have support for 10 years, but this couldn't have been what they meant. They will need a PS4 before 2016, almost certainly.